In the statistical guts of Domžale’s crisis: No attack to compensate for poor defence

Published on 3. November 2023 3. November 2023

Photo: Nik Moder / Sportida

Domžale every season in Telemach First League are among the relative favourites for European places. However, after 13 rounds played this season, the yellow family’ s position in the standings is quite surprising. At the moment, Domžale are in a modest 8th place and, with 11 points, are only 3 points away from a place that leads directly to the lower league.

Dusan Kosic’ s team scored more goals than, say, Mura, Aluminij, Radomlje and Rogaska. Their expected hits are 16.66, which is very much in line with their attack (17 actual hits). The figures in the offensive categories are not so alarming. They have not scored in only two matches. The problem lies in defence, where they have scored 24 goals in 13 games. Only Rogaška is worse in this respect (29).

Against Domžale, the opponents created 21 scoring chances (the most of any team in the league) and scored 24 goals. The difference is not big, but the goals scored often happen in games where Domžale are relatively in control and are an equal opponent.

Perhaps this can be attributed to the youth of the team (Domžale’s team is the third youngest in the league with an average age of 23.2 years ). Their defenders are on average 22.5 years old, while their goalkeepers are not yet 21, a really low number for such an important role on the pitch. More on the other (possible) reasons for the poor defence below.

The fact that Dušan Kosić is trying to find a solution from one game to the next is also evidenced by the substitutions. Domžale have made 64 in total and are at the top of the list, tied with Olimpija. However, it is important to keep in mind that Domžale players also have some injury problems.

Domžale players allow their opponents to create too many chances. Only Mura is more susceptible to shots from the opponent in the league. 190 shots have been directed at the Black-White goal, while only 5 less have been directed at the Domžale goal.

We’ve mentioned before that youth and inexperience are to blame for possible poor defending. On the other hand, Domžale players are losing the ball a lot. Here they are at the very top (only Bravo is worse). They have lost 1404 of their 13 matches so far. The last-placed Rogaska has, say, 100 less. If the ball is lost in the goalkeeper’s third in the build-up to an attack, there is a great chance for a shot and a goal. Although all this is true, Domžale surprisingly lost almost the fewest balls in their own half (151). Only Olimpija lost fewer (140). Perhaps intuitively, Domžale players lose the ball closest to their own goal on average.

The intensity of duels (duels, balls taken away, balls intercepted per minute when the team is not in possession) is also very poor in the Kamniška Bistrica team. Only Mura and Radomlje are worse in this category.

Dusan Kosic’s men are fifth in the league in defensive duels (70.7 per game) but their efficiency is the worst in the league. Interestingly, Olimpija and Maribor are a bit better (though poorly for their circumstances) at this. The Radom team is the best with 63.1% of successful matches. In aerial duels, Domžale’s squad is also 1.2% better than the last-placed Aluminija (40.7%).

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It is hard to believe that Kosic’s team would continue this trend of poor defence in the next rounds. After all, they are former champions who have their place in Slavic football. To the eye, they seem to be punished for every trivial mistake, and this is reflected in their points tally in the end. No offence can make up for a bad defence… Domžale players are really unlucky this year. Based on the expected points won, we should be in 6th place. 16. points. The winter break will therefore be the perfect time to turn things around along the Kamnik Bistrica.